Week 4, 12–16 October

Welcome to week 4! This week we start with Bayesian methods and introduce Bayesian linear regression.

Bayesian methods represent beliefs in the form of probability distributions. We revisit linear regression and add a probabilistic framework that allows us to quantify uncertainty in our predictions.

This is the second week to be assessed. Like before, your mark for this week depends on completing the discussion task (10%), attempting the in-note questions (20%), and this week’s assessed questions (70%). Full details on the assessments page including rules you must know.

Office hours:

You can meet us on MS Teams in the Meet-up channel of the MLPR 2020/21 Chat team on Friday at 9:30 AM and 4:30 PM UK time (BST, UTC+1). One of Arno or Iain will be there. If you want to discuss something individually, please contact us by email: Arno aonken@inf.ed.ac.uk or Iain i.murray@ed.ac.uk.

Here is what you need to do in Week 4:

• Any catch-up: Make sure you have done last week’s activities. Don’t get stuck on any “further reading” or optional parts, because you need to get on with this week. If there are any threads on hypothesis that didn’t get resolved (allow 48 hrs), email Arno and Iain.
• Lecture notes: Work through the Week 4 notes, answering all the questions. You should answer these as you go, to get the instant feedback and discussion of the answer. It’s fine to make mistakes here, but an honest attempt at these by Friday at 4pm (UK time) is required.
• Question sheet: Do the week 4 question sheet. This question sheet is assessed and forms the bulk of this week’s marks.
• Tutorial group discussions: This is the second week with tutorial group discussions. For this week’s group discussion, imagine you are involved in a building construction project, overseeing the quality of concrete. You have a test that checks whether the concrete is strong enough. However, the conditional probability of testing the concrete as strong enough given the concrete is not strong enough is 5%, and the conditional probability of testing the concrete as not strong enough given the concrete is strong enough is 25%. There are significant costs associated with a collapsing building and, to a lesser extent, revision of the concrete production. Discuss your beliefs about whether your concrete is strong enough or not given a positive or negative test result, and how to make a decision. Create a short summary of your conclusions about the use of this test for your tutor. This summary is (lightly) assessed! See the group instructions for details on how to submit the group discussion report.

We recommend that you aim to finish the questions (in the notes and question sheet) and submit your discussion report by the end of Thursday. We will assess only what you have submitted by 4pm UK time on Friday.

As in the Informatics late policy, extensions are not available for weekly hand-ins. We expect many students to miss or under-perform on one hand-in, and will discount the one with the lowest mark. If you experience more significant disruption to your studies, you may need to file special circumstances. Consult your Personal Tutor or Student Support team. Lecturers on a course cannot make allowances outside these procedures.